A brief history of climate change discoveries

Picture: Angelika Renner, British Antarctic Survey

50 years of Research and Innovation

For more than 50 years, research and innovation has helped to understand, tackle and mitigate the effects of climate change, and embed evidence in decision making and climate policy.

From early research proving global temperature rises and using ice cores that contain 800,000 years of continuous Earth climate records, to using supercomputers for climate modelling, we take a look at some of the most important discoveries in climate change research so far.

For more stories, profile pieces of key players in the climate change field and further information, please visit our 'Responding to Climate Change' pages.

1938 - Proof that global temperatures are rising

A little-known amateur scientist called Guy Callendar makes history by discovering the planet has warmed

In 1938, steam engineer Callendar decided to take a break from his day job and began painstakingly collecting records from 147 weather stations across the world. Doing all his calculations by hand, he discovered that global temperatures had risen 0.3°C over the previous 50 years.

Callendar argued that carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from industry were responsible for global warming. However, this was largely ignored by other scientists who didn’t believe that humans could impact such a large system as the climate.

Remarkably, despite his crude methods, Callendar’s estimates of global warming were extremely accurate and in line with modern assessments.

1954 - The birth of the solar cell

Three scientists invent the world’s first practical solar cell

In 1952, Bell Labs, the research branch of the Bell Telephone Company in New Jersey, asked engineer Daryl Chapin to solve a problem.

The company wanted to extend its network of telephones in remote tropical regions. However, the standard batteries used at the time were unsuitable as they degraded too quickly in the hot, humid, conditions. Chapin was asked to look into other power sources and immediately thought solar power might work.

Solar cells, which convert sunlight into electrical current, were invented more than a hundred years ago. However, the earliest were too inefficient to be of much use.

The solar cells on the market in the early 50s were made from selenium, but these produced just five watts per square metre, converting less than 0.5% of the incoming sunlight into electricity.

Calvin Fuller and Gerald Pearson, at the time, were developing transistors made from silicon and Chapin asked them for their help. Pearson and Fuller were experimenting with introducing different impurities into the silicon to boost its conductivity. As an experiment, the pair used gallium to give the silicon a positive charge and then dipped it into hot lithium to create a negative charge. They attached an ammeter — a device for measuring current — and switched on a desk light. The ammeter recorded the highest current flow yet seen in a solar cell, and Pearson immediately told Chapin to focus on silicon for his solar cells. The trio worked on their technology until they had a reliable cell that could convert 6% of solar energy into electricity.

ABOVE: Amateur scientist Guy Callendar’s crude estimates of global warming were extremely accurate – and in line with modern assessments. Picture: G.S. Callendar Archive, University of East Anglia

ABOVE: Solar panel from SPECIFIC Innovation and Knowledge Centre at Swansea University, co-funded by the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC), Innovate UK and the Welsh Government. SPECIFIC’s mission is to create ‘Active Buildings’ that harness all the energy a building needs from sunlight, as well as provide occupants with low-carbon energy for transport and to supply the National Grid. Picture: SPECIFIC

ABOVE: Measurements of the amount of CO₂ in water and in the air, made over five years in the 1950s and 60s by Charles David Keeling, provided unequivocal proof that CO₂ concentrations were rising. It led to the Keeling Curve, which has documented daily changes in CO₂ levels for over six decades. Keeling’s discovery is acknowledged as one of the most important scientific works of the 20^th century.

ABOVE: In 1967, researchers Syukuro Manabe and Richard Wetherald produced the world’s first accurate computer model of planet Earth’s climate – it predicted that doubling concentrations of CO₂ in the atmosphere could raise global temperatures by 2 degrees. Picture: Getty Images

ABOVE: The JASMIN supercomputer provides environmental scientists with access to very large sets of environmental data, which are typically too big for them to download to their own computers. It can reduce the time it takes to test new ideas and get results from months to hours. Picture: JASMIN

1958 - CO₂ levels are rising, and fossil fuels are to blame

Dr Charles David Keeling provides the first evidence that CO₂ levels are rising

In 1958, a young postgraduate geochemist called Charles David Keeling decided to compare the amounts of CO₂in water and air.

Nobody had ever really tried to measure the level of CO₂ in the atmosphere before, so there was no off-the-shelf equipment he could use.

He designed his own apparatus and set off to a weather observation station on the top of the Mauna Loa volcano in Hawaii. Once there, he took meticulous measurements every day and within five years he had provided the first unequivocal proof that CO₂ concentrations were rising.

What’s more, by analysing the CO₂ in his samples, Dr Keeling was able to attribute this rise to the use of fossil fuels.

Although some scientists in the 19^th century had argued that burning fossil fuels could increase CO₂ levels in the atmosphere, these concerns had remained largely hypothetical.

Dr Keeling’s discovery was one of the most important scientific works of the 20^th century. Since then, daily readings at Mauna Loa have continued almost uninterrupted for more than 60 years. The 'Keeling Curve', which documents changes in CO₂ levels over time, is the longest continuous record of CO₂ concentrations in the world.

1967 - Earth’s changing climate modelled for first time

Scientists create the first computer model of planet Earth’s climate. The model predicts that doubling concentrations of CO₂ could raise global temperatures by 2°C

In 1967, researchers Syukuro Manabe and Richard Wetherald produced the world’s first accurate computer model of planet Earth’s climate.

The model looked at all the different components that contribute to climate, including the atmosphere, oceans and clouds, and the relationships between them.

It even allowed researchers to adjust levels of CO₂ to see what impact this would have on global temperatures.

Manabe and Wetherald wrote that:

‘According to our estimate, a doubling of the CO₂ content in the atmosphere has the effect of raising the temperature of the atmosphere (whose relative humidity is fixed) by about 2°C.’

Measurements from the pre-industrial revolution through to today match that prediction extremely well. Since the 1880s we have increased CO₂ by about 50%, and temperatures have increased by 1.1°C.

Syukuro Manabe is one of three scientists to have been awarded the 2021 Nobel Prize in Physics for his work on understanding complex systems, such as the Earth's climate.

Supercomputer empowers next generation of climate models
Unlike Manabe and Wetherald, today's scientists have access to a huge amount of climate data from satellites. However, the computing power needed to process that data is astronomical. For example, the current Sentinel Earth observation satellites produce 10 terabytes of data every day which is the equivalent to data from 8.7 million WhatsApp messages going through the network every minute!

This is where the JASMIN supercomputer comes in. JASMIN provides environmental scientists with access to very large sets of environmental data, which are typically too big for them to download to their own computers. It can also reduce the time it takes to test new ideas, as well as give results in hours rather than months. JASMIN is operated by the Science & Technology Facilities Council’s (STFC) RAL Space Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA) on behalf of the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC).

1968 - Scientist predicts melting ice caps

Dr John Mercer, a glaciologist at Ohio State University in Columbus, warns that global warming could cause Antarctic ice sheets to collapse, leading to a disastrous rise in sea levels

In 1968, Dr Mercer was conducting fieldwork at the Reedy Glacier in West Antarctica when he discovered evidence of a former freshwater lake, 1,400 metres high up in the Transantarctic Mountains.

Dr Mercer took that as evidence that the entire West Antarctic Ice Sheet had once melted away, something that previously had been thought to be impossible.

His landmark paper found evidence that sea levels rose six metres in the previous interglacial period, around 120,000 years ago. Temperatures at that time were 6-7°C higher than they are today.

In his study, Dr Mercer called the West Antarctic Ice Sheet a 'uniquely vulnerable and unstable body of ice'.

He warned that current atmospheric warming could once more cause the ice shelves to disintegrate, causing a sea level rise of about five metres.

It took a while for his warning to take hold. However, this changed when, in 1995 the massive Larsen A ice shelf collapsed. The B ice shelf followed in 2002, and then in 2017 there was a major rift in Larsen C. In 2014, a team of scientists reported that the loss of ice in the Amundsen Sea Embayment had accelerated and appeared 'unstoppable'.

1969 - Earth’s temperature measured with satellites for first time

NASA’s Nimbus III satellite is launched into orbit – it provides the world’s first accurate measurement of global atmospheric temperatures

The Nimbus satellites revolutionised how scientists study the Earth’s climate, weather systems and atmosphere.

First launched in 1964, over the course of 30 years the series of satellites provided us with never-before-seen data on global temperatures, the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, the ozone layer, as well as sea ice thickness. It also allowed scientists to develop computer models that could forecast weather a week, or even two weeks, in advance, virtually impossible beforehand.

The Nimbus III satellite was the first to include instruments that could measure atmospheric temperature. This provided an independent satellite record confirming that the Earth’s lower atmosphere was warming.

New generation of climate satellites
Today’s satellites are of course capable of more sophisticated measurements. For instance, huge advances in measuring global surface temperatures have been made by British scientists at RAL Space. RAL Space carry out world-class science research and technology development, with significant involvement in more than 210 instruments on missions to date.

Since the 1980s, RAL Space scientists and engineers have helped develop and calibrate the Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (ATSR) series, considered to be one of the most accurate remote sensing instruments in the world. The ATSR can measure sea and land surface temperatures to unprecedented accuracy.

RAL Space also helped develop the Sea and Land Surface Temperature Radiometer (SLSTR) for the Sentinel satellites, which form part of the European Union's Copernicus Earth observation programme. The satellites are providing us with an extraordinary picture of how Earth’s climate is changing.

ABOVE: Glaciologist Dr John Mercer’s work in Antarctica in the 1960s led him to conclude that current atmospheric warming could cause ice shelves to disintegrate, causing a sea level rise of about five metres – a warning borne out by the collapse of the Larsen A ice shelf in 1995. Picture: Getty Images

ABOVE: Sentinel 3. Technology deployed on the Sentinel series of satellites can measure sea and land temperatures with unprecedented accuracy. STFC engineers at RAL Space played a key role in developing the technology. Picture: STFC

ABOVE: Ice cores provide key information about what the Earth’s climate was like in the past. The deeper you dig the further back in time you go. This slice shows the bubbles of trapped air thousands of years ago. This provides key information about what the Earth's climate was like in the past. Picture: Pete Bucktrout, British Antarctic Survey

ABOVE: The ozone hole above the Antarctic was discovered in 1985 by British Antarctic Survey Scientists. Here, from left, Dr Joe Farman, Brian Gardiner and Jon Shanklin are photographed with a Dobson ozone spectrophotometer, used to determine stratospheric ozone concentrations. Picture: Chris Gilbert, British Antarctic Survey

1985 - Drilling 150,000 years deeper into the ice

Ice cores extracted from Antarctica confirm that CO₂ and temperature have gone up and down together over the past 150,000 years

Ice cores provide key information about what the Earth’s climate was like in the past.

Bubbles sealed in the ice provide a unique snapshot of the atmosphere at the time. Scientists can also work out what surface temperatures were like in the past by analysing the ratio of ‘heavy’ atoms of oxygen and hydrogen.

The deeper you dig, the further back in time you go. So, when a team of French and former Soviet scientists extracted an Antarctic ice core over 2,000 metres long in 1985, they were able to tell what atmospheric conditions were like 150,000 years ago.

In 1998 the team extracted an even longer ice core, extending the climate record back to 420,000 years ago.

Both cores showed a clear relationship between levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases and Antarctic temperature over time. As greenhouse gases had gone up, so had temperatures.

What’s more, they showed that present levels of CO₂ and methane in the atmosphere are above anything seen in the past 420,000 years.

In 2004, ice core scientists at British Antarctic Survey (BAS) were part of a team that extracted a three-kilometre ice core from the Antarctic. This core contains a record of the Earth’s climate stretching back 800,000 years, giving us by far the oldest continuous climate record yet obtained from ice cores.

Together Antarctic ice cores show us that the concentration of CO₂ was stable over the last millennium until the early 19th century. It then started to rise, and its concentration is now nearly 50% higher than it was before the industrial revolution.

1985 - Ozone hole discovery

Scientists discover a hole in the ozone layer above Antarctica

The ozone layer in the Earth’s atmosphere naturally protects us from harmful ultraviolet (UV) light. So, when in 1985, three scientists from BAS reported that they had detected abnormally low levels of ozone over the South Pole, the world was shocked.

They suggested that compounds called chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), often used in aerosol cans and fridges, could be responsible. Their findings led to the Montreal Protocol in 1987, which called for the reduction, and then total ban of CFCs. The protocol is one of the most successful global environmental policies of the twentieth century, and helped raise public awareness of climate change.

A NERC commissioned analysis estimated that, had the discovery of the ozone hole been delayed by five to 10 years, the cost of this delay would have resulted in 300 more skin cancer cases every year in the UK by 2030, costing the country around £550 million a year in today's money. The Antarctic ozone hole is now slowly healing.

Interviews: Dr Anna Jones, Interim Director of Science at British Antarctic Survey (BAS) and Jonathan Shanklin, one of the scientists behind the discovery of the hole, whose work has been instrumental in preserving this vital shield for four decades.

ABOVE: Sunderland-based Hyperdrive Innovation develops and manufactures market-leading lithium-ion battery technology to power green transport and provide innovative energy storage. Innovate UK has been part of Hyperdrive’s journey from the start. Picture: Hyperdrive

ABOVE: The next generation of battery technologies is not limited to automobiles. In September 2021, Rolls-Royce’s fully electric aircraft, Spirit of Innovation, completed its maiden flight over Boscombe Down in Wiltshire. Half of the project’s funding is provided by the UK’s Aerospace Technology Institute, in partnership with the Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy, and Innovate UK. Picture: Rolls-Royce

ABOVE: Formed in 1988, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change heralded a new era of climate research. Its reports provide policymakers with regular scientific assessments on the current state of knowledge about climate change. NERC scientists have authored and reviewed key chapters in every report to date. Picture: Getty Images

1985 - The lithium-ion battery is invented

Japanese scientist Professor Akira Yoshino develops the world’s first rechargeable lithium battery. The lightweight battery ushers in a revolution in energy storage, eventually powering portable devices from mobile phones to laptop computers

In a lithium-ion battery, lithium ions move from the negative electrode (anode) to the positive electrode (cathode), through an electrolyte. When you plug the battery in to recharge, the ions move back in the opposite direction.

The idea to build a rechargeable lithium battery was first proposed by British scientist Professor Stanley Whittingham, who started developing one while working for the oil company Exxon in the 1970s. His prototype used a lithium-metal anode and a titanium disulfide cathode. The battery was rechargeable, but high manufacturing costs and safety concerns meant the technology could not be commercialised.

In the early 1980s, American Professor John Goodenough improved on the design by incorporating cathodes made from cobalt oxide. This greatly improved the storage capacity of the battery.

However, it wasn’t until Professor Yoshino made changes that dramatically improved the safety of the batteries that commercial production could begin. His design pioneered the use of carbon-rich anode materials into which lithium-ions could be inserted.

Next generation batteries
Since their invention in 1985, advances in the technology of rechargeable batteries have brought us closer to a dream of a completely fossil-fuel free society.

In 1995, while at the University of St Andrews, Professor Peter Bruce, a materials scientist funded by the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC), led the development of a rechargeable lithium-ion battery that revolutionised the electronics industry.

The battery was lighter, more reliable, more efficient and greener than the Nickel Cadmium (NiCad) battery used extensively at the time.

Over the years he has continued to make important advances in the science underpinning rechargeable lithium batteries, enhancing their ability to store and retain charge.

An electrode material developed by Professor Bruce was used in the first generation of modern electric vehicle batteries, as seen in cars such as the Nissan Leaf and Vauxhall Ampera.

He is also one of the pioneers of the lithium-air battery, which has the highest theoretical energy density of any battery and could transform energy storage. It has significant potential for use in electric vehicles.

The next generation of rechargeable batteries being developed by Professor Bruce, now at the University of Oxford, and others, will have a crucial role in improving air quality, lowering greenhouse gas emissions and helping us move to a fossil-fuel free world.

1988 - The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) heralds a new era of climate research

The IPCC provides policymakers with regular scientific assessments on the current state of knowledge about climate change

Established by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the United Nations body responsible for assessing the science related to climate change.

So far, the IPCC has published five Assessment Reports written by the world’s most renowned experts on climate change. These are the most comprehensive scientific reports produced about climate change worldwide.

Since 1990 these reports have consistently found that the Earth is warming, and that the release of greenhouse gases by humans is responsible.

Driving policy action
The five reports have been the cornerstone upon which international climate change negotiations have relied.

In 1990, the First IPCC Assessment Report played a decisive role in the creation of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, a key international treaty to reduce global warming and cope with the consequences of climate change.

The Second Assessment Report in 1995 led to the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, which further committed industrialised countries to limit and reduce their greenhouse gas emissions to individually agreed targets.

Finally, the Fifth Assessment Report provided the foundation for the 2015 Paris agreement where 195 countries agreed to limit global warming to less than 2°C above preindustrial levels.

Bringing together the world’s best experts
Each Assessment Report includes analysis of several thousand published scientific papers, written and edited by the very best experts in their field.

For the latest three IPCC Special Reports, IPCC authors assessed around 20,000 publications and considered around 100,000 comments from more than 2,500 experts.

Many of these authors are funded by NERC, the driving force of investment in environmental science in the UK.

NERC scientists have authored and reviewed chapters in every single IPCC report to date, offering expertise in:

·       Climate history
·       Loss of ice from ice sheets and glaciers
·       Ocean circulation and ocean warming
·       Climate modelling
·       Sea level rise

Data from key figures of the Summary for Policymakers section of the latest IPCC report are now available for anyone to access from the CEDA Archive. This is the first time SPM figure data has been available on the same day as report publication.

The next Assessment Report is due in 2022.

1991 - Wind power takes off in the UK

The UK’s first wind farm is constructed in Cornwall and it includes 10 turbines that together produce enough electricity for approximately 2,700 homes

Delabole Wind Farm in North Cornwall was the first commercial wind farm in the UK, completed and commissioned in 1991 by the Edwards family.

Since then, the UK has continued to embrace wind energy.

The UK's first demonstration offshore wind farm was installed in December 2000 off the Northumberland coast. It consisted of two 2 megawatt (MW) wind turbines with a rotor diameter of 66 metres. At the time, these were the largest turbines installed offshore in the world.

North Hoyle, the UK’s first commercial wind farm, followed shortly afterwards in 2003. It was situated off the North Wales coast, and consisted of 30 turbines with a rotor diameter of 80 metres, each producing 2MW.

Fast forward to today, and Britain is the global leader in offshore wind energy, with offshore turbines contributing around 10% of the UK's power in the third quarter of 2019.

That year, the world’s largest, and the very first, one gigawatt offshore wind farm began operation off the Yorkshire coast. Hornsea One has a whopping 174 turbines, each producing 7MW, and is almost double the capacity of the previous largest offshore wind farm.

The UK’s offshore wind capacity is set to double over the next decade.

Success story
Perhaps the main reason that the UK has been so successful at harnessing wind is down to its investment in state-of-the-art testing facilities.

Since 2003, world-class testing facilities have allowed companies to trial and test offshore wind rotor blades at Blythe in Northumberland. This site, now run by the Offshore Renewable Energy (ORE) Catapult, allows companies to see how turbine blades work in real-world conditions. This allows engineers to make improvements and identify problems early on, helping to reduce risk and drive down the cost of offshore renewable energy.

The ORE Catapult also hosts the Levenmouth Demonstration Turbine, the world’s most advanced, open-access offshore wind turbine dedicated to R&D.

The towering 7MW turbine has been used as a test facility by:

. Companies supplying sub-sea electrical cables to wind farms
. Innovative start-ups developing novel turbine blades or making robots to inspect foundations
. Universities developing new software to control the turbines themselves

1992 - Coral reefs at threat

Scientists realise that higher levels of CO₂ in the ocean will make it harder for corals and other animals to build reefs

When CO₂ dissolves in the ocean, it raises the water's acidity level.

This stops corals from sucking in a vital mineral called calcium carbonate, which they use to build their skeletons.

US scientists Professor Stephen Smith and Professor Robert Buddemeier were the first to warn of this consequence of ocean acidification. Since then, evidence that there's a problem has continued to mount.

It’s not just corals that are at risk; all creatures that form shells are in danger, including oysters, mussels, clams and some planktonic species.

For instance, research by Dr Steve Widdicombe from Plymouth Marine Laboratory has shown that burrowing heart sea urchins are extremely vulnerable to ocean acidification.

If sea urchins were to die out, this would have far-reaching implications. That’s because these digging creatures act like earthworms, stirring up the seabed and releasing nutrients for other organisms to use.

ABOVE: From its first wind farm in 1991, the UK has embraced wind energy and is now a driving force in research and development. The Levenmouth Demonstration Turbine (pictured) is the world’s most advanced, open-access offshore wind turbine dedicated to R&D. It is operated by the Offshore Renewable Energy Catapult, one of a network of Catapults set up by Innovate UK in high growth industries. Picture: ORE Catapult

ABOVE: Working with the Offshore Renewable Energy Catapult, BladeBUG is developing advanced robots to autonomously assist technicians in the inspection and repair of wind turbine blades. Picture: Blade Bug

ABOVE: When CO₂ dissolves in the ocean, it raises the water's acidity level. High acidity can kill any creature that forms a shell, including coral. Coral provide a vital ecosystem for life underwater as well as a crucial source of income for millions of people. Picture: NERC

ABOVE: The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change was the first international treaty designed to limit greenhouse gas emissions. It led directly to the 1995 Kyoto Protocol, which committed industrialised countries and economies to limit and reduce greenhouse gases emissions. Picture: Getty Images

ABOVE: Since 1996 the Sleipner field in the Norwegian sector of the North Sea has been capturing about one million tonnes of CO₂ each year and storing it in a saline formation 1 km below the seabed. Picture: Øyvind Hagen/©Equinor

1994 - First climate change legislation comes into force

197 countries sign up to the first global treaty to combat climate change

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was the first international treaty designed to limit greenhouse gas emissions and prevent climate change.

It entered into force on 21 March 1994, and has been ratified by 197 countries.

This also led directly to the 1995 Kyoto Protocol, which committed industrialised countries and economies to limit and reduce greenhouse gases emissions in accordance with agreed individual targets.

This was then superseded by the Paris Agreement in 2015, which legally requires countries to reduce their carbon emissions in order to limit global warming to 1.5°C compared to pre-industrial levels.

1996 - Capturing carbon underground

The world’s first carbon storage project gets underway

Carbon capture (CC) is when you take greenhouse gases produced by industrial plants, power stations and other sources, and store it underground. This stops CO₂ from being released into the atmosphere, preventing further global warming.

The world’s first commercial CO₂ storage project began operation in 1996 at the Sleipner gas field in the North Sea.

Since then, about 1 million tonnes of CO₂ from natural gas have been captured and stored every year. This equates to more than 20 million tonnes of CO₂, equivalent to the annual emissions from 10 million cars.

Proving carbon storage is safe and feasible
It’s now accepted that carbon capture is essential if we are to get to zero emissions by 2050, however at one time the technology was seen as potentially risky. Governments and the public needed convincing that the technology was safe and feasible.

Since its inception, scientists from the British Geological Survey (BGS) have monitored the Sleipner carbon storage site. Using advanced 3D imaging studies, BGS were able to track the precise location of CO₂ before and after injection. Their work showed that all of the captured CO₂is securely confined within the storage reservoir.

This demonstrated the safety and feasibility of CO₂ storage, changing the way it was seen by scientists, policymakers and the public.
Find out more about the latest on carbon capture in our podcast on the topic.

1997 - Hybrid cars invented

The first mass-market electric hybrid car is produced by Toyota

Although the electric car was developed by the Scottish inventor Robert Anderson in the 1830s, it wasn't until Toyota released the Prius in Japan in 1997 that the first step had been taken towards a viable alternative to fossil-fuel powered mass-produced cars.

Fast forward to today, and the electric vehicle (EV) revolution is in full swing.

Jaguar plans to sell only electric cars from 2025, Volvo from 2030 and Lotus from 2028.

It’s not just luxury car manufacturers, General Motors says it will only make EVs by 2035, Ford plan to only sell electric cars in Europe by 2030, and VW says 70% of its sales will be electric by 2030.

Industry insiders believe we will soon pass the tipping point where sales of EVs will very rapidly outpace petrol and diesel cars.

This success is all down to rapid advances in technology. Improvements have been made in the motors that drive EVs, the computers that control them, and most importantly, the batteries that power them.

Thanks to those advances modern batteries last much longer, and can store much more energy than batteries produced just five years ago.

The work doesn’t stop there though as researchers and innovators are continuing to work on making EV batteries safer, more powerful, cheaper, faster-charging and easier to recycle.

2003 - Scientists link extreme weather to climate change

A heatwave in Europe kills tens of thousands of people – scientists say that climate change is to blame

Flash floods and heatwaves seem to be happening almost every year in Britain, but is this just a coincidence?

Up until a few years ago, it wasn’t possible to draw a link between extreme weather and climate change with any degree of accuracy.

However, that changed in 2004 when Professor Pete Stott, a scientist at the UK Met Office, published a paper in the scientific journal Nature showing that climate change had doubled the risk of the 2003 European heatwave that killed tens of thousands of people.

His finding led to a growing scientific movement called extreme event attribution. This is where researchers point to an extreme weather event and use climate modelling to say whether the likelihood of the event happening would be the same in a world without climate change.

Today’s scientists are able to calculate the impact of global warming on droughts, heatwaves and floods with remarkable accuracy.

One of the leading experts in the field of extreme event attribution is Dr Friederike Otto, Deputy Director of the UKRI-funded Environmental Change Institute (ECI) at the University of Oxford.

Dr Otto showed that the 2018 heatwave that engulfed northern Europe was made twice as likely due to climate change. She also found that the risk of extreme rainfall in any given winter has risen by 25%.

ABOVE: The Toyota Prius was launched in October 1997 as the world's first mass-produced hybrid passenger vehicle. It came with the tagline: ‘Just in time for the 21st century.’ The first step had been taken towards a viable alternative to entirely fossil-fuel powered cars. Picture: Toyota

ABOVE: Lithium-ion batteries are used to power most electric vehicles, and it’s essential that they can be safely and economically managed at the end of their useful life. The UKRI-funded Faraday Institution’s ReLib project is developing robotic technologies to disassemble spent battery packs for potential reconditioning and reuse as part of a circular economy. Picture: Faraday Institution

ABOVE: Research by Dr Friederike Otto at the UKRI-funded Environmental Change Institute showed that the 2018 heatwave that engulfed northern Europe was made twice as likely due to climate change. She also found that the risk of extreme rainfall in any given winter has risen by 25%. Picture: Brad Wakefield

ABOVE: If seawater temperatures increase in the polar regions, bubbles of methane could rise to the surface, causing even more warming in the atmosphere. Methane has a warming effect approximately 20 times stronger than CO₂. Picture: Getty Images

2007 - The Arctic is warming twice as fast as the rest of the planet

Polar regions are warming twice as fast as the rest of the Earth, putting polar bears and other wildlife at risk

The International Polar Year 2007-2008 was the largest campaign ever mounted to explore Earth’s polar regions.

Around 50,000 scientists, students and support staff from over 60 nations convened to unlock the secrets of the Arctic and Antarctic.

What they found was alarming. The Greenland ice sheet, parts of the Antarctic ice sheet, and Arctic sea ice are melting at rates that are unprecedented in the last 10,000 years.

Climate change is already having a measurable effect on lifeforms throughout the food chain, from microbes to polar bears.

The poles are also warming faster than the rest of the planet, one of the key predictions of climate models.

One of the reasons for this increased warming is due to something called Ice-albedo feedback. Ice is highly reflective, so a lot of solar radiation that hits the polar regions bounces back into space.

However, as the planet warms and ice caps melt, less light is reflected, leading to even more warming.

This is an example of 'positive feedback' in climate change, where warming accelerates further change.

Methane plumes
Another example of positive feedback that climate scientists are worried about is methane.

Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas, with a warming effect approximately 20 times stronger than CO₂. In cold waters it is commonly found in the seabed as methane hydrate. However, if seawater temperatures rise, bubbles of methane could rise to the surface causing even more warming in the atmosphere.

During the International Polar Year, scientists at NERC witnessed this very process occurring.

The scientists were surveying the Arctic seabed when they spotted plumes of the powerful greenhouse gas methane rising from the seafloor off Spitsbergen, an island in the Svalbard archipelago in northern Norway.

A rise of just 1 degree Celsius over recent decades meant that methane hydrate, which was once stable, was breaking down, releasing methane.

This was the first time scientists had found evidence suggesting such seeps are due to ocean warming.

2008 - The UK Climate Change Act is enshrined in law

The Act becomes the world’s first long-term legally binding framework for tackling climate change

The Act requires the government to set binding five-year carbon budgets based on the latest science.

In 2008 the Act committed the UK to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 80% by 2050, compared to 1990 levels. However, this target was made more ambitious in 2019 when the UK became the first major economy to commit to a ‘net zero’ target.

A review of the Act by the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change in 2018 found that its carbon budgets have helped reduce emissions in the UK, particularly in the power sector.

2015 - Landmark international Paris agreement reached to cut carbon

196 countries sign up to the Paris Agreement, and agree to limit global warming to less than 2°C above pre-industrial levels

The Paris Agreement is a legally binding international treaty on climate change. It was adopted by 196 countries on 12 December 2015, and entered into force on 4 November 2016.

Its goal is to limit global warming to 1.5°C, compared to pre-industrial levels.

As part of the agreement, nations set their own legally binding targets for greenhouse gas cuts and report their progress every five years.

2019 - Ice collapse ‘irreversible’

Ice sheets in Antarctica and Greenland may have already passed the point of no return; their collapse could raise sea levels by 10 metres

A special report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warns that part of an ice sheet known as the Amundsen Sea embayment of West Antarctica might have already passed a tipping point, with collapse now unavoidable.

Climate models suggest that when this sector collapses, it could destabilise the rest of the West Antarctic ice sheet like falling dominoes. This would cause sea levels to rise by three metres over a timescale of centuries to millennia.

The report says that part of a separate East Antarctic ice sheet known as the Wilkes Basin might also be unstable.

The Greenland ice sheet is also melting at an accelerating rate, and could add a further seven metres to sea levels. Models show that the Greenland ice sheet will collapse when the Earth warms to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, which could happen as soon as 2030.

The collapse of these three ice sheets will raise sea levels by around 10 metres over the period of thousands of years. However, how quickly they rise depends on the magnitude of global warming.

If we limit warming to 1.5°C, it could take 10,000 years to unfold. Above 2°C it could take less than 1,000 years.

Monitoring glaciers in Antarctica
The predictions of irreversible ice collapse are all based on computer models, but computer simulations need to be confirmed with real-world observations.

Since 2018, researchers from NERC have been conducting a whole suite of measurements on two Antarctic glaciers; the Thwaites Glacier and Pine Island Glaciers.

These glaciers form part of the Amundsen Sea embayment, which the IPCC predicts could have already passed the point of no return.

NERC’s research is looking at what’s causing ice loss at these glaciers, and how it will impact global sea levels.

For example, scientists are using aircraft to take radar measurements to look deep below the surface of the ice and build a clear picture of how different layers of ice and the bedrock interact. This is crucial in understanding how climate change will affect large ice sheets.

ABOVE: A British Antarctic Survey Twin Otter aircraft coming in to land at its Rothera base. Twin Otters, often termed a ‘bush’ aircraft as they are designed for remote environments, are extremely versatile and can be modified to allow airborne surveying and other scientific equipment to be fitted. Picture: Dave Wattam, British Antarctic Survey

ABOVE: The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are melting at an accelerating rate. Their collapse could raise sea levels by 10 metres. Picture: Picture: Danielle Barnes, Unsplash

ABOVE: Sumatran tigers are a critically endangered carnivore restricted to the island of Sumatra. Like many other large mammals on the Indonesian archipelago, they are threatened by high levels of poaching and widespread habitat degradation. Picture: Mark Mallett, UKRI

ABOVE: Critically endangered Hawksbill turtles help maintain the health of coral reefs. As they remove prey such as sponges from the reef's surface, they provide better access for reef fish to feed. They also have cultural significance and tourism value. Picture: Getty Images

ABOVE: Green shoots: One of the reasons that the UK was able to commit to reaching net zero in 2019 was because research showed that, not only was it possible, it would actually bring economic benefits. Picture: Getty Images

2019 - Variety of life on Earth being lost at “unprecedented” pace

Up to one million animal and plant species are now threatened with extinction, and many could die out within decades

A 2019 report by the UN found that the number of native species on the planet has plummeted since 1900.

The report, written by 145 experts from 50 countries, is the most comprehensive assessment of global biodiversity ever to take place.

It found that at least 680 vertebrate species have been driven to extinction since the 16th century.

The rate of species extinctions is also accelerating, with grave impacts on people around the world.

More than 40% of amphibian species are now at risk of extinction. Over a third of all marine mammals and 33% of reef-forming corals are also threatened.

The main factors driving this mass extinction are changes in land and sea use, direct exploitation of organisms, climate change, pollution and the introduction of invasive alien species.

The assessment was compiled by the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), often described as the “IPCC for biodiversity”. IPBES is an independent intergovernmental body which is made up of more than 130 governments.

The report was compiled by 145 expert authors from 50 countries over the past three years. Many of these experts were NERC-funded scientists, who have acted as editors and expert consultants for this report, and previous IPBES reports.

2019 - UK first country to pass net zero emissions law

The UK is the first major economy in the world to pass laws to end its contribution to global warming by 2050

In 2019, the UK committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions to net zero by 2050.

Net zero is when the amount of greenhouse gas emissions produced is the same as the amount removed from the atmosphere.

This means any emissions are balanced by schemes to offset an equivalent amount of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere, such as planting trees or using technology like carbon capture and storage.

The target will require the UK to bring all greenhouse gas emissions to net zero by 2050, compared with the previous target of at least 80% reduction from 1990 levels.

Science behind the policy
One of the reasons that the UK was able to commit to reaching net zero was because research showed that, not only was it possible, it would actually bring economic benefits.

This was the advice that researchers at the UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC) gave the Climate Change Committee, an independent, statutory body which provides independent advice on setting and meeting carbon budgets and preparing for climate change.

2020 - World record set for solar power

Oxford PV, a spin out company from the University of Oxford, sets a world record with a cell that can convert 29.52% of solar energy into electricity

The solar cells made by Oxford PV are coated with a thin film of the material perovskite to boost conductivity.

With support from EPSRC, the company has teamed up with scientists at the University of Oxford to produce a solar cell with 37% efficiency within five years. These initial products, designed for residential roofs, will generate 20% more power from the same number of cells than current solar cells on the market.

2021 - Many aspects of climate change are now inevitable and irreversible

Scientists predict the world will reach 1.5C of warming by 2040, earlier than initial warnings. That level of warming will lead to more heatwaves, intense storms, droughts and floods

The findings are reported in the latest Assessment Report by the IPCC, the world’s leading authority on climate science.

The report delivers scientists’ starkest warning yet about the deepening climate emergency. It warns that we are already observing changes in the Earth’s climate that are unprecedented in thousands, if not hundreds of thousands of years.

They include more intense rainfall and associated flooding, more intense drought in many regions, sea level rises in coastal areas, permafrost thawing, ocean acidification and others.

The report says that these changes are 'unequivocally' caused by humans burning fossil fuels.

The assessment predicts that temperatures are likely to rise to more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels within just two decades.

This means that many changes such as sea level rises, the melting of Arctic ice and the warming and acidification of the oceans, are now irreversible and set in stone.

It’s not too late to prevent further warming of 2°C; through drastically reducing carbon emissions in the next decade.

The 1.5C target is crucial, because beyond this point climate tipping points become more likely.

Tipping points are when rising temperatures trigger a series of cascading events with dire consequences. For example melting Arctic permafrost releases methane into the atmosphere, which causes even more warming.

ABOVE: Oxford PV is pioneering a new generation of solar cells that could transform the economics of silicon solar technology. Picture: Oxford PV

ABOVE: A NERC-supported researcher from the University of Bristol sampling water from the Greenland Ice Sheet for later methane analysis. The team have found that the Ice Sheet emits tons of methane, showing that subglacial biological activity impacts the atmosphere far more than previously thought. Picture: Marie Bulinova

In Summary

Climate change is a global issue and concern around the world. Its impact is being felt now with more to come in the near future if we cannot limit greenhouse gases. All eyes will be on the COP26 global summit which will focus on slowing the rate at which the planet is warming.

Today, the UK is at the forefront of a new, green industrial revolution. Research and innovation continue to underpin the UK’s commitment to:

·       Achieving a net zero economy by 2050
·       Respond to the challenges of climate change
·       Live more sustainably

Across UKRI, we invest in the cutting-edge research and innovation essential to understanding and tackling the environmental sustainability challenges that we face. With projects ranging from green transportation and agricultural transformation, to investigating our changing planet and future energy systems, researchers and innovators are working hard to support the government’s ambitious target of reaching net zero.

To find out more about these projects, and the people behind them, visit our 'Responding to Climate Change' pages.